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ElectionsUSM

US Midterm Monitor

Where does the national House ballot stand before the midterms?

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From the published recordUSM

Special-election overperformance

+12.9

Observation: · pts

The median points by which the opposition has run ahead of each seat's own 2024 presidential margin. It measures the environment and never forecasts a seat count.

Across 24 special elections dated to 2026-09-18 the opposition has run a median +12.9 points against each seat's own 2024 presidential margin, mean +11.0, with 4 certified seat changes.

Daily Kos Elections / The Downballot

Wikipedia (CC BY-SA 4.0)

Daily Kos Elections / The Downballot

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Named sourcesVisible methodologyEditor supervision
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Check the evidence

Inside this preview.

The preview record16 cited entries
  1. New Hampshire climbs ranks of Senate seats most likely to flipcnn.com
  2. Federal judge blocks Trump mail ballot rule for midtermsnbcnews.com
  3. Trump endorses Irish reunification, breaking with US policywashingtonpost.com
  4. Lutnick says Trump's $5,000 checks would not use taxpayer fundsnbcnews.com
  5. Trump says he would accept Chinese car plants in USreuters.com
  6. Trump leads pledge: 'You go to hell' if you don't votethehill.com
  7. Missouri high court blocks Trump map, forces referendumcnn.com
  8. DOJ escalates mail-ballot fight to Supreme Courtreuters.com
  9. Iran widens Gulf strikes, oil risk premium persiststhehill.com
  10. Army Secretary Driscoll exits, deepening Pentagon churnreuters.com
  11. Escalation deepens but gasoline risk looms for Trumpreuters.com
  12. Iran retaliates against US bases in Jordan, escalating six-month Hormuz conflictedition.cnn.com
  13. Hormuz claim inflates US leverage narrative but strait traffic remains thincnn.com
  14. Hormuz strike resumes kinetic posture, bolsters strong-leader narrativecnn.com
  15. Virginia's amendment struckState statutes, court opinions and legislative records
  16. Louisiana v. CallaisState statutes, court opinions and legislative records
Published calendarUpcoming releases

A current published schedule, not a delayed reading. These dates are the same here as on the full monitor.

  1. Federal funding deadline for the 2027 fiscal year · 34 days before the vote, after two funding lapses already in 2026

    appropriations record

  2. Candidate third-quarter filings due · North Carolina in-person early voting opens, through 2026-10-31

    FEC filing calendar; NC State Board of Elections

  3. Federal filings due: the September monthly report

    FEC filing calendar

  4. Pre-general filings due, covering through 2026-10-14 · Maryland early voting opens

    FEC filing calendar; Maryland State Board of Elections

  5. Florida's mandatory early-voting window opens, through 2026-10-31 · New York early voting through 2026-11-01

    state election calendars

  6. ELECTION DAY · Louisiana's all-candidate House primary runs on the new map, Maryland votes on a redistricting-process amendment, and the Texas 23rd district special is expected the same day

    state proclamations

  7. Georgia general runoff, if no candidate reaches a majority

    Georgia state law

  8. Louisiana runoffs

    Louisiana state law

How this is measured

What this is not
This monitor measures the environment: standings, results, filings and dates. It never forecasts seats and never states a probability of any outcome.
How to read the number
Measured on the party governing Washington. Positive means the opposition leads the national House ballot, which is more headwind. The president's party has lost House seats in 20 of the last 23 midterms.
How overperformance is measured
Overperformance is the opposition's margin in the special measured against the seat's own 2024 presidential margin. The figures and the per-seat 2024 leans are Daily Kos Elections / The Downballot's computed dataset, quoted here with a link and not recomputed by Oxon. Results not yet certified are labelled and seat changes are counted at the certified tier only.
What is deliberately not published
Nothing is published below five results, the mean never appears without its median and the number of results behind it, and no unofficial count is presented as certified.
The redistricting table
Each row is a dated, cited act. The net is the sum of the seat effects in this table and nothing else; published estimates elsewhere range wider because they count competitive seats differently.

Sources & attribution

Every figure comes from a published source, named and linked. Where a licence requires it, the publisher is named beside the figure.

Wikipedia (CC BY-SA 4.0)

Daily Kos Elections / The Downballot

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We will refund your first subscription payment if you request it within 30 days of that payment. Email info@oxoncapital.co.uk to request your refund. This guarantee applies to the first payment only, not to later renewals.

Information and research only. Not investment advice or a personal recommendation. Capital at risk.

Oxon Capital is a research firm. This page states what published data shows. It does not tell anyone what to buy, sell or hold, and nothing on it is an offer to deal.