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Oxon CapitalSpecialist market research

GeopoliticsRUS

Russia War-Endurance Monitor

What is the measured state of the Russian war economy?

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The reading over timeRUS

War-Economy Pulse

63.5↓ 0.60 over 1d

Observation:

50 is this reading's own average over the trailing year. Higher is more strain.

18 September 202663.5
War-Economy Pulse, 3 July 2025 to 18 September 2026.31.852.9742025-07-032026-09-18
443 dated readings. Hover to inspect; tap or click to keep a reading. Use arrow keys, Home or End to explore; Escape resets.
View data (443 observations)
War-Economy Pulse: published preview observations
DateValue
3 July 202532.1
4 July 202531.9
5 July 202531.9
6 July 202531.8
7 July 202532.2
8 July 202532.6
9 July 202532.8
10 July 202533
11 July 202533.4
12 July 202533.7
13 July 202533.9
14 July 202533.6
15 July 202533.3
16 July 202532.9
17 July 202532.7
18 July 202532.4
19 July 202532.3
20 July 202532.2
21 July 202532.2
22 July 202532.4
23 July 202532.7
24 July 202533.2
25 July 202533.3
26 July 202533.5
27 July 202533.8
28 July 202534.1
29 July 202534.3
30 July 202534.3
31 July 202533.8
1 August 202533.4
2 August 202533.7
3 August 202534.3
4 August 202534.5
5 August 202535
6 August 202535.4
7 August 202536.4
8 August 202537
9 August 202536.4
10 August 202536.6
11 August 202536.9
12 August 202537
13 August 202537.7
14 August 202538.2
15 August 202539.2
16 August 202540.7
17 August 202541
18 August 202541.8
19 August 202542.8
20 August 202543.4
21 August 202543.7
22 August 202544
23 August 202544.1
24 August 202544.8
25 August 202545.4
26 August 202545.8
27 August 202546.2
28 August 202547.1
29 August 202547.7
30 August 202548.6
31 August 202548.8
1 September 202548.7
2 September 202548.5
3 September 202548.3
4 September 202547.2
5 September 202546.8
6 September 202545.8
7 September 202545
8 September 202544.6
9 September 202544.6
10 September 202544.6
11 September 202545.3
12 September 202545.4
13 September 202545.6
14 September 202546.5
15 September 202547.2
16 September 202547.9
17 September 202548.5
18 September 202549.6
19 September 202550.6
20 September 202552.3
21 September 202553.3
22 September 202554.2
23 September 202554.6
24 September 202555.3
25 September 202555.9
26 September 202556.5
27 September 202556.5
28 September 202556.1
29 September 202555.7
30 September 202555.4
1 October 202554.3
2 October 202553.3
3 October 202552.4
4 October 202551.8
5 October 202551.5
6 October 202551.6
7 October 202551.6
8 October 202552.1
9 October 202553.8
10 October 202554.6
11 October 202555.5
12 October 202556.4
13 October 202557.1
14 October 202557.7
15 October 202558.3
16 October 202557.9
17 October 202558.3
18 October 202558.3
19 October 202559
20 October 202559.5
21 October 202560.4
22 October 202560.8
23 October 202561.4
24 October 202561.5
25 October 202561.6
26 October 202561.1
27 October 202560.7
28 October 202560.1
29 October 202560.7
30 October 202560.7
31 October 202560.7
1 November 202560.9
2 November 202561.2
3 November 202561.6
4 November 202561.8
5 November 202561.6
6 November 202561.7
7 November 202561.8
8 November 202561.8
9 November 202561.8
10 November 202561.3
11 November 202561.5
12 November 202561.2
13 November 202560.7
14 November 202560.4
15 November 202560.4
16 November 202560.7
17 November 202561.3
18 November 202561.1
19 November 202560.9
20 November 202560.7
21 November 202560.3
22 November 202559.4
23 November 202558.3
24 November 202557.4
25 November 202556.8
26 November 202556.2
27 November 202556
28 November 202556
29 November 202556.8
30 November 202557.7
1 December 202558.5
2 December 202559.3
3 December 202560.4
4 December 202561
5 December 202561.5
6 December 202561.6
7 December 202561.4
8 December 202561.5
9 December 202561.3
10 December 202560.9
11 December 202560.5
12 December 202559.9
13 December 202559.5
14 December 202559.9
15 December 202560.4
16 December 202560.8
17 December 202561.6
18 December 202562.4
19 December 202562.7
20 December 202562.9
21 December 202562.2
22 December 202561.7
23 December 202561
24 December 202559.9
25 December 202559.5
26 December 202559
27 December 202558.4
28 December 202558.3
29 December 202558.1
30 December 202557.9
31 December 202558.2
1 January 202658.1
2 January 202658.3
3 January 202658.5
4 January 202658.5
5 January 202658.4
6 January 202659
7 January 202659.2
8 January 202659.4
9 January 202659.6
10 January 202660
11 January 202660.3
12 January 202660.6
13 January 202660.2
14 January 202659.5
15 January 202659
16 January 202658.2
17 January 202657.3
18 January 202656.5
19 January 202655.9
20 January 202655.3
21 January 202655.5
22 January 202655.9
23 January 202655.7
24 January 202655.4
25 January 202655.1
26 January 202654.9
27 January 202654.3
28 January 202653.3
29 January 202651.7
30 January 202650.1
31 January 202648.5
1 February 202647.2
2 February 202645.9
3 February 202645.2
4 February 202644.3
5 February 202644
6 February 202644.2
7 February 202644.4
8 February 202644.6
9 February 202644.7
10 February 202644.7
11 February 202645
12 February 202645.2
13 February 202645.1
14 February 202644.9
15 February 202645.1
16 February 202645.2
17 February 202645.8
18 February 202645.8
19 February 202645.9
20 February 202646
21 February 202646.1
22 February 202645.9
23 February 202646
24 February 202645.6
25 February 202645.3
26 February 202644.7
27 February 202644.4
28 February 202644.3
1 March 202644.1
2 March 202644.1
3 March 202643.8
4 March 202643.7
5 March 202643.7
6 March 202643.7
7 March 202643.5
8 March 202643.5
9 March 202643.2
10 March 202643
11 March 202642.4
12 March 202642
13 March 202641.4
14 March 202641.5
15 March 202641.8
16 March 202642.2
17 March 202642.5
18 March 202643
19 March 202643.1
20 March 202643.9
21 March 202644.2
22 March 202643.7
23 March 202643.7
24 March 202643.2
25 March 202642.8
26 March 202642.8
27 March 202643.6
28 March 202643.9
29 March 202644.8
30 March 202645
31 March 202645.3
1 April 202645.3
2 April 202645.4
3 April 202644.8
4 April 202644
5 April 202643.1
6 April 202642.7
7 April 202642.2
8 April 202642.1
9 April 202641.6
10 April 202641
11 April 202640.3
12 April 202639.5
13 April 202638.7
14 April 202637.6
15 April 202636.2
16 April 202635
17 April 202634.2
18 April 202634.4
19 April 202634.6
20 April 202635
21 April 202635.1
22 April 202635.1
23 April 202635.4
24 April 202636.1
25 April 202635.8
26 April 202635.8
27 April 202635.6
28 April 202635.8
29 April 202636.1
30 April 202636.2
1 May 202636.7
2 May 202637.2
3 May 202637.6
4 May 202637.8
5 May 202638.3
6 May 202638.4
7 May 202638.6
8 May 202638.6
9 May 202638.3
10 May 202637.7
11 May 202637.2
12 May 202636.6
13 May 202636.5
14 May 202636.1
15 May 202635.6
16 May 202635.2
17 May 202635.3
18 May 202635.6
19 May 202636.4
20 May 202636.7
21 May 202637.2
22 May 202637.8
23 May 202638.5
24 May 202639
25 May 202639.4
26 May 202639.4
27 May 202639.4
28 May 202639.2
29 May 202639.4
30 May 202640
31 May 202641.1
1 June 202642.2
2 June 202643.1
3 June 202644
4 June 202644.7
5 June 202645
6 June 202644.6
7 June 202644.1
8 June 202644.2
9 June 202644.2
10 June 202644.1
11 June 202644.3
12 June 202645.3
13 June 202646
14 June 202646.7
15 June 202647
16 June 202647.8
17 June 202648.1
18 June 202649
19 June 202649.5
20 June 202649.9
21 June 202650.4
22 June 202651.3
23 June 202651.6
24 June 202652.7
25 June 202653.9
26 June 202655.5
27 June 202657.2
28 June 202658.6
29 June 202659.8
30 June 202661
1 July 202662
2 July 202663
3 July 202663.7
4 July 202664.3
5 July 202664.5
6 July 202665.9
7 July 202667.2
8 July 202668.2
9 July 202668.9
10 July 202669.6
11 July 202670.4
12 July 202671.1
13 July 202672
14 July 202672.7
15 July 202673.5
16 July 202674
17 July 202673.9
18 July 202673.9
19 July 202673.8
20 July 202673.4
21 July 202672.7
22 July 202672.1
23 July 202671.3
24 July 202670
25 July 202668.7
26 July 202667.3
27 July 202666
28 July 202664.7
29 July 202663.4
30 July 202662.4
31 July 202661.7
1 August 202661
2 August 202660.5
3 August 202660.2
4 August 202660
5 August 202660
6 August 202660.1
7 August 202660.1
8 August 202660.6
9 August 202660.9
10 August 202661.3
11 August 202661.6
12 August 202662.2
13 August 202663
14 August 202663.7
15 August 202664
16 August 202664.3
17 August 202664.4
18 August 202664.2
19 August 202663.9
20 August 202663.6
21 August 202662.9
22 August 202662.4
23 August 202662.1
24 August 202662.1
25 August 202662
26 August 202662.3
27 August 202662.3
28 August 202662.5
29 August 202662.4
30 August 202662.4
31 August 202662.3
1 September 202662.4
2 September 202662.6
3 September 202662.8
4 September 202662.9
5 September 202663
6 September 202663.2
7 September 202663.2
8 September 202663.4
9 September 202663.7
10 September 202663.8
11 September 202664.4
12 September 202664.7
13 September 202664.7
14 September 202664.8
15 September 202664.6
16 September 202664.3
17 September 202664.1
18 September 202663.5

CREA · Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CC BY 4.0)

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Inside this preview.

The preview record40 cited entries
  1. Strike reported · Slavyansk-na-Kubani refinery · Krasnodar Kraitass.ru
  2. Strike reported · Yaroslavl / Slavneft-YANOS refinery · Yaroslavl Oblastpravda.com.ua
  3. Russian military strikes Zaporizhstal plant and Iskra complexinterfax.ru
  4. Pidlasa says Ukraine needs additional $32.6bn for 2027 budgettass.ru
  5. Belousov awards corvette commander for flare incident with Danish helicopterpravda.com.ua
  6. Atesh claims sabotage at Voronezh missile-components plantkyivindependent.com
  7. US to lift sanctions on two Belarusian firms for prisoner releasepravda.com.ua
  8. Poland scrambles jets and closes airports amid Russian drone attacks on Ukrainekyivindependent.com
  9. Russia extends diesel export ban for producers until end of Octoberinterfax.ru
  10. US House schedules 16 September final vote on Russia sanctions billpravda.com.ua
  11. Strike reported · Syzran refinery (Rosneft, Samara Oblast) · Samara Oblastpravda.com.ua
  12. Russian firms to display 494 exhibits at Africa Aerospace and Defence 2026interfax.ru
  13. US forces destroy two Iranian boats after IRGC attempted seizure of maritime drone in Strait of Hormuzinterfax.ru
  14. Ukraine tests new interceptor against Russian jet drones, Zelensky sayskyivindependent.com
  15. MEP Juknevičienė opens European Parliament debate on Russian hybrid attacksukrinform.net
  16. Belarus holds defensive military drills near Poland and Lithuaniakyivindependent.com
  17. Russian frigate fires flares at Danish helicopterkyivindependent.com
  18. HUR publishes data on 54 enterprises of Russia's KRET radio-electronic holdingpravda.com.ua
  19. Russian forces strike Kyiv gas station, one hospitalizedkyivindependent.com
  20. US House committee advances Russia sanctions billinterfax.ru
  21. EU postpones Russia sanctions deadline to Sept. 22kyivindependent.com
  22. US imposes new sanctions on VTB Bank over Iran evasionkyivindependent.com
  23. Putin does not want energy ceasefire before winter, FT reportspravda.com.ua
  24. Zelensky and Koretskyi warn Ukraine budget nears critical pointkyivindependent.com
  25. Trump claims Russia and Ukraine agreed to energy ceasefiremeduza.io
  26. Russian central bank notes rise in aggregate FX demand by non-financial companiestass.ru
  27. Drone attack damages about 150 apartments in Oryol on 13 Septembertass.ru
  28. Ukraine carried out 131 long-range strikes on Russia over summerpravda.com.ua
  29. Cieniuch says Russia targets Ukraine arms supply routes from Polandukrinform.net
  30. Russia recruits 28,000 foreign mercenaries, Ukraine intelligence chief saysukrinform.net
  31. Tusk calls special session after Russian strikes near Polish borderpravda.com.ua
  32. Drone attack kills two at industrial hub in Russia's Tatarstantass.ru
  33. France links Usmanov sanctions relief to security concernpravda.com.ua
  34. Bank of Russia injects $2bn into reinsurer on war costsbloomberg.com
  35. Strike reported · Saratov refinery (Rosneft) · Saratov Oblastpravda.com.ua
  36. Strike reported · Восток-Западinterfax.ru
  37. Strike reported · Ryazan refinery (Rosneft) · Ryazan Oblastthemoscowtimes.com
  38. Strike reported · Novorossiysk oil terminals (Sheskharis / CPC) · Krasnodar Kraipravda.com.ua
  39. Strike reported · Saratov refinery (Rosneft) · Saratov Oblastkyivindependent.com
  40. Strike reported · Ryazan refinery (Rosneft) · Ryazan Oblastpravda.com.ua

How this is measured

How the reading is built
Each input is z-scored against its own trailing 365 days (point-in-time, no lookahead), clamped at 3 standard deviations, oriented so higher always means more strain, then combined under fixed published weights and smoothed with a 5-day half-life. 50 is the trailing-year norm.
What it is, and what it is not
A measured composite of daily market and campaign series, scaled against its own trailing year. It is not a forecast, states no probability of any outcome, is not a view on any asset, and no signal rule reads it.
How to read the number
0 to 100 · higher = more pressure on Russia's war economy · 50 is this reading's own trailing-year norm

Sources & attribution

Every figure comes from a published source, named and linked. Where a licence requires it, the publisher is named beside the figure.

CREA · Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CC BY 4.0)

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Oxon Capital is a research firm. This page states what published data shows. It does not tell anyone what to buy, sell or hold, and nothing on it is an offer to deal.