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Oxon CapitalSpecialist market research

Credit & policyGFM

Germany Fiscal Monitor

Is Germany's rearmament money actually being spent, or only announced?

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The reading over timeGFM

Defence cash against the plan's pace

0.77x↓ 0.01 over May to Jun

Observation: · x

1.00x is spending exactly at the enacted plan's own seasonal pace.

EUR 9.3bn behind the plan's pace through Jun

June 20260.7749 x
Defence cash against the plan's pace, January 2026 to June 2026 (x).0.77490.85610.93732026-012026-06
Unit: x. 6 dated readings. Hover to inspect; tap or click to keep a reading. Use arrow keys, Home or End to explore; Escape resets.
View data (6 observations)
Defence cash against the plan's pace (x): published preview observations
DateValue (x)
January 20260.9373
February 20260.8512
March 20260.8103
April 20260.8103
May 20260.7825
June 20260.7749

Quelle: BMF Monatsbericht

European Central Bank · free at source; the scaling is an Oxon calculation

Destatis (dl-de/by-2-0)

Preview prepared . Observations through .

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Check the evidence

Inside this preview.

The preview record40 cited entries
  1. Hegseth and Pistorius sign NATO arms cooperation agreementhandelsblatt.com
  2. German 10-year Bund yield rises to 3.57%handelsblatt.com
  3. Merz accuses AfD of calling for 'ethnic cleansing'handelsblatt.com
  4. Trump map shows Greenland, Canada and Iceland as US territoryhandelsblatt.com
  5. Handelsblatt blog: SPD questions reform path after Saxony-Anhalt; Merz personnel speculation dismissedhandelsblatt.com
  6. MEPs demand strict 'Made-in-EU' rules for EU subsidy recipientsfaz.net
  7. Handelsblatt commentary accuses SPD of blocking reforms and urges coalition to leadhandelsblatt.com
  8. AfD wins Saxony-Anhalt vote but falls short of absolute majorityhandelsblatt.com
  9. AfD wins Saxony-Anhalt state election; Musk and Trump hail result, BSW eyes common groundhandelsblatt.com
  10. HDE barometer shows German retail began Q3 with record slump as consumers held back spendinghandelsblatt.com
  11. AfD more than doubles Saxony-Anhalt result as CDU halves vote sharehandelsblatt.com
  12. CDU youth wing demands swift pension reform without long transition periodsfaz.net
  13. AfD wins Saxony-Anhalt vote but majority hinges on BSW resulthandelsblatt.com
  14. AfD seeks to govern Saxony-Anhalt but lacks majority for sole rulehandelsblatt.com
  15. Iran announces Hormuz exclusion zone, reports US vessel attack; US says tanker sunkhandelsblatt.com
  16. One in five German firms report hybrid threats, economists warn on utilities supplyhandelsblatt.com
  17. Volkswagen reaches surprise restructuring agreement at Wolfsburgfaz.net
  18. Russia shelled Kyiv airports before US mediators arrived, Zelenskyy sayshandelsblatt.com
  19. Germany approves tax cuts for families partly funded by top earnersreuters.com
  20. US negotiators arrive in Moscow to mediate end to Ukraine war, Kyiv nexthandelsblatt.com
  21. Putin orders 72-hour pause on Kyiv attacks as US mediators reach Moscowhandelsblatt.com
  22. Brunnermeier study warns AI trading agents threaten core market mechanismfaz.net
  23. Swiss Patriot deal collapses, CHF 1.7-4.3bn cost blowout to early 2030swatson.ch
  24. Germany warms to UniCredit interest in Commerzbank, Reuters reportsreuters.com
  25. Iran war drives oil and gas prices higherhandelsblatt.com
  26. German special police storm vehicle of power-grid sabotage suspecthandelsblatt.com
  27. Trump says US envoys Wittkoff and Kushner take Ukraine peace proposal to Kyiv and Moscowhandelsblatt.com
  28. Scope affirms Germany's AAA sovereign rating with stable outlookhandelsblatt.com
  29. MBDA Deutschland wins first export order for Enforcer precision munitionhartpunkt.de
  30. Elliott reportedly builds larger Deutsche Telekom stake, pushes buybacks over T-Mobile US mergerhandelsblatt.com
  31. Iran war pushes German fuel prices higher, FAZ ticker saysfaz.net
  32. FAZ analyses AfD path to majority and fiscal cost in Saxony-Anhalt 2026 votefaz.net
  33. Bavarian minister says Munich defence-site arson was politically motivatedhandelsblatt.com
  34. Uber's Delivery Hero takeover wins target backing but faces German antitrust complaintsfaz.net
  35. Rheinmetall-Lockheed ATACMS JV confirms European production hubfaz.net
  36. Procurement approval · Four MEKO A-200 DEU ASW frigates fixed order (EUR 6.3bn) + option for four more by end-2026 (EUR 5.3bn); SVBW funding block lifted · TKMSesut
  37. Procurement approval · Five Combatant Craft Medium special-forces boats (FMS; ~EUR 100m esut estimate)esut
  38. Procurement approval · Combat Fighter System of Systems Nucleus (CFSN) stage 1: national R&D for future air combat (UCAV experimentation platforms)esut
  39. Procurement approval · High-energy laser weapon system (HoWiSM) for naval close-in defence: production + deliveryesut
  40. Procurement approval · 76x636mm practice ammunition for F123/F124 frigates + K130 corvettesesut

How this is measured

What this is not
The Rearmament Delivery Index measures the pace at which Germany's announced defence money is turning into parliamentary procurement approvals, cash outlays and industrial output. It is a budget-delivery gauge, not a forecast of yields, growth or military capability, and not investment advice.
How to read the number
Measured against the enacted plan's own seasonal pace · 1.00x is exactly on schedule. Higher spending is not automatically better: the reading says how fast the money is moving against the plan, nothing about whether it is well spent.
What the cash figure covers
Functional 'Verteidigung' (Aufgabenbereich · core federal budget only; the Sondervermoegen's EUR 25.5bn reports annually). The plan figure is the Soll enacted with the budget; it is not revised here.
The industrial orders index
New orders booked by the weapons and ammunition industry (WZ 25.4), volume index, 2021 = 100, calendar and seasonally adjusted. Display only · never an input to the index. A single large contract can double a month at this level of detail, so the reading quoted is a 3-month mean, never one month.

Sources & attribution

Every figure comes from a published source, named and linked. Where a licence requires it, the publisher is named beside the figure.

Quelle: BMF Monatsbericht

European Central Bank · free at source; the scaling is an Oxon calculation

Destatis (dl-de/by-2-0)

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We will refund your first subscription payment if you request it within 30 days of that payment. Email info@oxoncapital.co.uk to request your refund. This guarantee applies to the first payment only, not to later renewals.

Information and research only. Not investment advice or a personal recommendation. Capital at risk.

Oxon Capital is a research firm. This page states what published data shows. It does not tell anyone what to buy, sell or hold, and nothing on it is an offer to deal.