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ElectionsGER

Germany Election Monitor

Where do Germany's federal and state polls actually stand?

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The reading over timeGER

AfD · federal polls

AfD 28.2%↓ 0.10 over 1d

Observation: · %

A share of the vote in a rolling average of published polls. It is not an index and it is not a forecast of a result.

16 September 202628.2 %
Federal polling average, 3 January 2025 to 16 September 2026 (%).1823.1528.32025-01-032026-09-16
Unit: %. 324 dated readings. Hover to inspect; tap or click to keep a reading. Use arrow keys, Home or End to explore; Escape resets.
View data (324 observations)
Federal polling average (%): published preview observations
DateValue (%)
3 January 202518
5 January 202519
6 January 202519.8
7 January 202519.6
8 January 202519.9
9 January 202519.8
10 January 202519.9
11 January 202520.2
13 January 202520.4
14 January 202520.3
15 January 202520.4
18 January 202520.5
20 January 202520.5
21 January 202520.4
22 January 202520.4
23 January 202520.3
24 January 202520.4
25 January 202520.4
26 January 202520.5
27 January 202520.5
28 January 202520.4
29 January 202520.5
30 January 202520.6
31 January 202520.6
1 February 202520.6
3 February 202520.7
4 February 202520.7
5 February 202520.8
6 February 202520.7
7 February 202520.8
8 February 202520.8
10 February 202520.9
11 February 202520.8
12 February 202520.8
13 February 202520.7
14 February 202520.7
15 February 202520.7
17 February 202520.7
18 February 202520.7
19 February 202520.6
20 February 202520.6
21 February 202520.6
22 February 202520.7
2 March 202520.6
4 March 202520.7
6 March 202520.7
7 March 202520.8
9 March 202520.7
11 March 202520.8
15 March 202520.9
18 March 202521.1
21 March 202521.3
24 March 202522
25 March 202522.1
26 March 202522.2
27 March 202522.1
28 March 202522.1
30 March 202522.2
31 March 202522.2
1 April 202522.3
3 April 202522.4
5 April 202522.5
7 April 202522.9
8 April 202523
9 April 202523.2
11 April 202523.3
12 April 202523.4
15 April 202523.5
19 April 202523.6
22 April 202523.9
25 April 202524
26 April 202524
28 April 202524.3
29 April 202524.4
30 April 202524.5
2 May 202524.5
3 May 202524.5
5 May 202524.5
6 May 202524.6
7 May 202524.5
10 May 202524.4
12 May 202524.5
13 May 202524.5
14 May 202524.6
16 May 202524.6
19 May 202524.6
20 May 202524.6
21 May 202524.5
23 May 202524.4
24 May 202524.3
27 May 202524.3
31 May 202524.1
2 June 202524.1
3 June 202524
4 June 202524
5 June 202523.9
6 June 202523.9
7 June 202523.9
10 June 202523.9
11 June 202523.8
15 June 202523.6
17 June 202523.4
18 June 202523.4
19 June 202523.4
20 June 202523.3
22 June 202523.3
23 June 202523.3
27 June 202523.1
28 June 202523.2
1 July 202523.2
3 July 202523.1
5 July 202523.1
7 July 202523.2
8 July 202523.2
10 July 202523.3
13 July 202523.3
14 July 202523.3
15 July 202523.3
16 July 202523.4
19 July 202523.5
22 July 202523.6
25 July 202523.7
26 July 202523.7
28 July 202523.8
29 July 202523.9
1 August 202524
2 August 202524.1
5 August 202524.2
7 August 202524.3
9 August 202524.3
11 August 202524.4
12 August 202524.5
14 August 202524.4
15 August 202524.5
16 August 202524.5
19 August 202524.7
20 August 202524.7
21 August 202524.6
23 August 202524.6
25 August 202524.7
26 August 202524.8
29 August 202524.8
2 September 202524.9
3 September 202524.9
5 September 202524.9
7 September 202525
8 September 202525
9 September 202525
10 September 202525
13 September 202525
16 September 202525.1
17 September 202525.2
19 September 202525.2
20 September 202525.3
23 September 202525.5
24 September 202525.5
27 September 202525.5
29 September 202525.5
30 September 202525.6
2 October 202525.6
4 October 202525.6
6 October 202525.7
7 October 202525.7
9 October 202525.7
10 October 202525.7
12 October 202525.8
14 October 202525.8
15 October 202525.8
17 October 202525.9
18 October 202525.9
21 October 202525.9
24 October 202525.8
25 October 202525.9
27 October 202525.9
28 October 202525.9
1 November 202525.9
3 November 202525.9
4 November 202525.9
6 November 202525.9
7 November 202525.9
8 November 202525.9
11 November 202526
12 November 202526
14 November 202525.8
15 November 202525.8
17 November 202525.9
18 November 202525.8
19 November 202525.8
21 November 202525.8
22 November 202525.8
25 November 202525.8
28 November 202525.9
2 December 202525.9
3 December 202525.9
4 December 202525.9
6 December 202525.9
9 December 202526
10 December 202525.9
11 December 202525.9
12 December 202525.8
13 December 202525.8
16 December 202525.9
17 December 202525.9
21 December 202526
23 December 202525.9
3 January 202625.8
5 January 202625.9
6 January 202625.9
8 January 202625.8
10 January 202625.8
13 January 202626
14 January 202625.9
15 January 202625.9
16 January 202625.8
17 January 202625.8
20 January 202625.8
24 January 202625.8
27 January 202625.7
31 January 202625.7
3 February 202625.6
5 February 202625.5
6 February 202625.4
7 February 202625.4
10 February 202625.4
11 February 202625.3
14 February 202625.2
16 February 202625.2
17 February 202625.2
22 February 202625.1
24 February 202625
27 February 202624.9
28 February 202624.9
2 March 202624.9
3 March 202624.8
5 March 202624.6
7 March 202624.6
10 March 202624.6
12 March 202624.5
14 March 202624.5
17 March 202624.5
21 March 202624.4
24 March 202624.5
27 March 202624.5
28 March 202624.6
31 March 202624.7
1 April 202624.7
4 April 202624.8
7 April 202625
8 April 202625.1
10 April 202625.2
11 April 202625.2
14 April 202625.4
15 April 202625.5
17 April 202625.6
18 April 202625.6
21 April 202625.8
25 April 202626
28 April 202626.1
2 May 202626.4
5 May 202626.6
7 May 202626.6
8 May 202626.6
9 May 202626.6
11 May 202626.7
12 May 202626.9
13 May 202626.8
16 May 202627
19 May 202627.3
22 May 202627.3
23 May 202627.4
26 May 202627.5
30 May 202627.5
1 June 202627.5
2 June 202627.5
3 June 202627.5
5 June 202627.5
6 June 202627.5
9 June 202627.7
11 June 202627.8
13 June 202627.9
16 June 202628
19 June 202627.9
20 June 202628
23 June 202628
24 June 202628
27 June 202628
30 June 202628
2 July 202628
3 July 202627.9
4 July 202628
7 July 202628
9 July 202628
11 July 202628
14 July 202627.9
17 July 202627.8
18 July 202627.8
20 July 202627.8
21 July 202627.8
23 July 202627.7
25 July 202627.6
28 July 202627.6
31 July 202627.6
2 August 202627.6
4 August 202627.6
6 August 202627.7
8 August 202627.7
11 August 202627.7
15 August 202627.8
18 August 202627.8
20 August 202627.8
21 August 202627.8
23 August 202627.9
25 August 202628
28 August 202628
29 August 202628.1
1 September 202628.2
2 September 202628.1
3 September 202628.1
5 September 202628.1
8 September 202628.2
12 September 202628.2
14 September 202628.3
15 September 202628.3
16 September 202628.2

Data: DAWUM, Open Database License (ODbL)

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Check the evidence

Inside this preview.

The preview record19 cited entries
  1. Elif Eralp faces complicated path to Berlin mayoralty despite Die Linke's winning chancespiegel.de
  2. Berlin Green lead candidate Graf pitches moderate campaign to keep coalition options opentagesschau.de
  3. Berlin business association survey puts CDU at 51.5%welt.de
  4. CDU leadership backs Chancellor Merztagesschau.de
  5. Chancellor Merz holds out prospect of fuel-price relieftagesschau.de
  6. AfD wins Saxony-Anhalt state election with 43.8%dw.com
  7. BSW rules out coalition with AfD and all other parties in Saxony-Anhaltsueddeutsche.de
  8. Leading CDU politicians back Chancellor Friedrich Merzspiegel.de
  9. CDU remains strongest force in Lower Saxony municipal electiontagesschau.de
  10. Bildungsmonitor 2026: 18.8% of young adults in Germany lack qualificationtagesschau.de
  11. Merz appeals to party allies in Finland amid leadership crisisspiegel.de
  12. Stefan Evers becomes CDU lead candidate for Berlin state electiontagesschau.de
  13. AfD federal board imposes conditions on streamer Matthäus Westfalspiegel.de
  14. Clara von Nathusius urges Merz not to run againspiegel.de
  15. Hoppermann calls Schwesig's Mecklenburg-Vorpommern campaign 'irresponsible'welt.de
  16. Klingbeil condemns CDU attack on labour minister Baszeit.de
  17. Hannover prosecutor searches SPD's Berlin lead candidate Krachtagesschau.de
  18. AfD takes Saxony-Anhalt at 44.5%, CDU halves to 18.5%tagesschau.de
  19. BSW Thuringia faction on brink as nine more MPs quittagesschau.de
Published calendarUpcoming releases

A current published schedule, not a delayed reading. These dates are the same here as on the full monitor.

  1. Bundestagswahl

    Germany (federal)

How this is measured

What this is not
This monitor measures published opinion, not outcomes. A polling average is a measurement of opinion today, not a forecast of an election, and nothing here states the probability of any result.
How the accuracy ranking is computed
Mean absolute error of each institute's final pre-election Bundestag poll versus the official Zweitstimmen result, averaged over the last two federal elections, across parties that cleared 5%. Lower is more accurate.
What the ranking covers
Computed from the published archive rather than reported by any institute. Coverage spans the two federal elections in DAWUM's usable archive (2021, 2025), so N is small; institutes with N=1 are marked provisional; a poll whose field-work ended more than 21 days out is flagged.
Campaign events
Five parties publish a machine-readable diary and are read here; the CDU/CSU row is the CSU's calendar alone, because the CDU publishes none. The AfD and BSW publish no diary a machine can read, so they link out. Only real, parsed events are shown.

Sources & attribution

Every figure comes from a published source, named and linked. Where a licence requires it, the publisher is named beside the figure.

Data: DAWUM, Open Database License (ODbL)

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Oxon Capital is a research firm. This page states what published data shows. It does not tell anyone what to buy, sell or hold, and nothing on it is an offer to deal.