- What this is not
- This monitor measures published central-bank communications and published economic statistics. It contains no recommendation, no forecast, and no probability of any Federal Reserve decision. Oxon Capital does not tell anyone what to buy, sell or hold.
- What the policy gap is
- The policy gap is a market price, not a forecast and not this desk's view. It is one subtraction between two published series, and it contains a term premium this desk does not strip out, because stripping it needs a model and a modelled number is not one a reader can check.
- How it is computed
- The two-year Treasury constant-maturity yield minus the effective federal funds rate, in basis points, both read on the same session. A session where either leg is missing produces no point.
- Why there is no stance score
- This monitor publishes no stance score for any speaker or any speech. What it publishes instead is the vote, the dissent and its stated direction, the change in the statement's own words, the Committee's own projections, and the dated record of who said what.