- What this is not
- This monitor measures the financing of the AI build-out against its own history. It does not forecast prices, defaults or outcomes.
- This is not a credit spread
- Where this page shows a credit default swap level it is a TRADED SPREAD from the statutory public swap-data tape, not a dealer quote: a price someone actually paid on the date shown. It is trade-contingent, so a day with no trading shows no level. That means no trade, not no risk, and the gaps are never interpolated or carried forward. The continuous daily composite published by market-data vendors is proprietary, Oxon holds no licence to it, and no number here is derived from one. A new-issue concession is a PRIMARY-MARKET price struck on one day for one deal; a credit default swap level is a SECONDARY price on a standardised contract. They move together and they are not the same number.
- Reading the excess bond premium
- Positive means credit investors are pricing risk more dearly than measured default risk implies; negative means credit is being priced generously. Higher is the strained direction.
- Reading the financial stress index
- 0 is the average level of stress since 2000, so a NEGATIVE reading is below-average stress. The category columns are additive contributions to the headline, not standalone indices, and must never be added together or presented as independent signals.
- How each deal is matched to its filing
- Every row is joined to its tranche BY LABEL (the security title's coupon and maturity year, matched to the prospectus cover). Deals that cannot be joined unambiguously are excluded whole, with a reason, never approximated. Non-USD deals are excluded entirely.
- What the deal record does not capture
- Spread to the benchmark Treasury is NOT captured. No 424B in this cohort discloses a re-offer spread, and every basis-point string these documents do contain is a redemption formula or a settlement cycle. Oxon does not infer a credit spread from prospectus prose.
